By Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent
The minerals deal could also be excellent news for Ukraine, however it’s not essentially dangerous information for Russia.
That is as a result of a take care of Volodymyr Zelenskyy would not preclude a take care of Vladimir Putin.
It is necessary to recollect there are three separate strands of negotiations that Donald Trump is juggling right here.
This deal is the results of one strand – Washington’s contacts with Kyiv, which the White Home has pursued to make sure America will get one thing again for its army assist of Ukraine.
Then there are peace talks themselves, the place Donald Trump has proposed what seems to be a really one-sided peace plan in favour of Moscow.
For now, that hasn’t modified.
And the ultimate strand is the US-Russia strand, the place the US President is chasing a rapprochement with Moscow.
There may be some crossover between the strands – the safety ensures for Ukraine are a living proof.
US firms on the bottom in jap Ukraine is just not precisely the safety assure Volodymyr Zelenskyy had in thoughts, however I feel it can give the Kremlin pause for thought on the subject of persevering with its army marketing campaign.
As a result of if it did, it could nearly definitely scupper the rapprochement with Washington.
There was numerous speak of enterprise offers and joint financial cooperation between the US and Russia because of their negotiations and I am positive each events nonetheless intend that to occur.
Trump’s enterprise background suggests he’ll attempt to get as a lot out of this example as doable, and I feel Russia will as nicely.
So I feel the Kremlin might see this as a chance to extract extra from the negotiations they’re concerned in, maybe portraying it as a concession on their half to be able to impose extra circumstances.
They may say, for instance, that American enterprise pursuits are a safety assure sufficient for Kyiv, after which use that argument to get US backing for his or her opposition to an actual safety assure within the type of European peacekeepers.
Or they could use it to strengthen different calls for, like sanctions reduction, recognition of Crimea or US assist for Russia’s readmittance to the G7.
Donald Trump would be the grasp dealmaker, however Moscow are the masters of defending their very own pursuits and this minerals deal is unlikely to forestall that.