NBA Draft 2025 live updates: Round 2 start time, latest mock draft, predictions, news and analysis

Our draft expert Sam Vecenie and front office insider John Hollinger are analyzing each pick of the draft:

Vecenie’s ranking: 6

The ceiling for Bailey is the second-best player in this class if he improves his areas of need. Particularly, he needs to improve his flexibility and ability to play with bend while also getting stronger. That would allow him to access more power and use his gifts across the court in a more functional manner. Once he does that, Bailey would be able to start working on improving his gathers and ball pickups around the rim on his drives to improve his finishing, which would also hopefully get defenders more off-balance and give him more options. That would improve his shooting percentages, which again, even on pull-ups this year, were markedly low. Then, on defense, it would allow him to play the leverage game better. Hopefully, better engagement on that end would follow, too, but he showed enough upside on that end to become a player. If all of this happens, there’s serious All-Star upside. Anyone who says that doesn’t exist is flat-out wrong. There is a chance Bailey could morph into a playmaker and star-level difference-maker on the wing.

Ultimately, though, it all feels like a bit of a house of cards. He needs to improve the bend and flexibility, which would then improve certain parts of his game. Then, he’d need to also keep improving the shooting percentage, and oh, by the way, he’d also need to keep improving his ability to make decisions off his drives as a passer, and then on top of that he needs to get locked in more consistently and showcase better engagement on defense regularly. There are just a lot of moving parts that make me somewhat uncomfortable with drafting a player like this in the top five. There are so many areas that need improvement. The good news is there’s a floor. Already, Bailey is a shooter off the catch and a player with size, length and athleticism who has shown moments on defense at 18 years old. That should allow him to stick in the NBA for a long while, even if the upside case doesn’t totally come together.

Bailey is a project. He’s one worth investing in, but it’s going to take time as he continues to mature. Hopefully, he lands in a situation that gives him that chance.

Hollinger’s analysis: Our first surprise! Nobody was sure what the Jazz would do with the fifth pick under new management with Austin Ainge in charge, but they grab Ace Bailey just ahead of the two teams (Washington and New Orleans) that were rumored to be most interested in him. I wasn’t that excited about Bailey, but I’m more pessimistic than most; the other interesting part will be how he fits in a Jazz frontcourt that already has Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler.