Stocks Rise as Investors Brush Aside Tariff Concerns Ahead of Earnings, Inflation Data; Nasdaq Hits New High

Biggest S&P 500 Movers on Monday

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Advancers

• Natural gas futures prices pushed 4% higher, with analysts pointing to indications of tightening in the market including a decline in production and an uptick in implied weather-driven demand. Shares of natural gas producer and pipeline operator EQT Corp. (EQT) advanced 5.3%, securing the S&P 500’s top performance on Monday. Analysts at RBC Capital, Jefferies and Scotiabank lifted their price targets on EQT’s stock last week.
• Autodesk (ADSK) shares gained more than 5% following reports that the company is no longer pursuing an acquisition of engineering design software competitor PTC (PTC). Autodesk stock came under pressure late last week after Bloomberg reported that the company was discussing a possible cash-and-stock purchase of its rival. However, Autodesk said in a regulatory filing that it would remain focused on its strategy, which might include “targeted and tuck-in acquisitions,” with no direct mention of PTC. Shares of PTC slipped 1.3%.
• Shares of data analytics software provider Palantir Technologies (PLTR) jumped 5%, finishing at an all-time high. Toward the end of last week, Wedbush boosted its price target on Palantir stock, saying the company could be a primary beneficiary from the expected surge in spending on artificial intelligence technology. The analysts believe investors could be underestimating the potential revenue stream from Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform, or AIP, which Wedbush pegs at $1 billion or more.

Decliners

• Laboratory instrument manufacturer Waters (WAT) announced a deal to buy the Biosciences & Diagnostic Solutions division of Becton Dickinson (BDX) in a $17.5 billion Reverse Morris Trust transaction. The acquisition, of a business that makes products for treating infectious diseases and cancer, promises to boost scale and increase the total addressable market for Waters, but analysts pointed to execution and integration risks. Waters shares plunged 13.8%, the most of any stock in the S&P 500.
• Shares of memory chipmaker Micron Technology (MU) slipped 4.8%. Edgewater Research indicated that pricing and demand for computer memory chips could be below seasonal trends in the second half of 2025. Shares of Micron rival SanDisk (SNDK) tumbled 7.8%.
• Constellation Brands (STZ) shares sank 4.4% as investors grappled with the latest intensification of trade tensions and tariff news. The beer, wine, and spirits maker depends on aluminum cans for its packaging, particularly when it comes to its popular Mexican beer brands Corona and Modelo. At the beginning of June, Constellation indicated that aluminum tariffs would cost the company approximately $20 million throughout the rest of its fiscal year.

–Michael Bromberg

What Analysts Are Watching as Earnings Season Kicks Off

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The big-bank earnings reports due this week mark the quasi-official start to the second-quarter earnings season. Analysts expect growth, but they’re also eyeing the effects of tariffs as President Donald Trump’s trade policy continues to evolve. 

The numbers are landing with plenty already on investors’ minds, from ongoing trade-policy drama to questions about the path forward for interest rates.

Big banks including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) could offer insight into consumer health and the appetite for deals. Other companies that will likely offer clues about broader themes include consumables giant PepsiCo (PEP) and chipmaker TSMC (TSM). Netflix (NFLX) is also set to report, making it the first of the “FANG” (and, for that matter, “FAANG”) stocks to deliver its numbers.

Here are three themes to watch for as results for the quarter—covering April through June in most cases—start to roll in. 

Analysts are looking for growth. S&P 500 EPS is seen rising 4.1% year-over-year, according to a recent report from UBS; companies that have already reported their numbers, the bank observed in late June, have beaten estimates by more, on average, than the longer-term trend.

Historically, UBS said, expectations “start too high, are adjusted lower heading into reporting season, and could come in slightly higher vs. expectations.”

S&P 500 companies reported double-digit year-over-year earnings growth in the first quarter for a second-straight period, according to FactSet.

There are also signs of caution. Wall Street analysts cut their estimates for S&P 500 companies’ earnings more than usual during the second quarter, according to a FactSet analysis published July 3.

The combined bottom-up earnings-per-share estimate for the companies in the index fell more than 4% between the end of March and the end of June, FactSet said, more than the average seen in the past 5, 10, or 15 years. (It was in line with the average for the past 20 years.)

Trump’s tariffs are likely to be a hot topic. Deutsche Bank analysts on July 7 estimated that tariffs will ding second-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 by about 2 percentage points, with the “hit” likely to increase in the second half of the year.

Companies with “concentrated tariff effects” account for about a quarter of S&P 500 earnings, according to Deutsche Bank. Goldman Sachs economists expect companies to pass 70% of direct costs associated with tariffs to consumers in the form of higher prices.

“Economic fundamentals appear solid at this juncture, but uncertainty is pervasive,” National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said last week. “Everyone is sorting through what the tariff rates are going to be, how they will impact inflation for retail products and, importantly, how long they will be in place.”

–David Marino-Nachison

UBS Analysts Says Tesla Stock Remains Overvalued

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UBS analysts said Monday that shares of EV maker Tesla (TSLA), which is due to report second-quarter earnings next week, remain “fundamentally overvalued.”

“We see deteriorating fundamentals in the auto business, the removal of 100% margin credit revenue, likely negative revisions to estimates, and a CEO that is arguably distracted from the business (or at least may not be as focused on the company as investors would like),” the analysts wrote in a note previewing earnings across the auto industry.

With their “sell” rating and $215 price target, UBS analysts are more bearish than most of Wall Street. In contrast, the stock has eight “buy,” five “hold,” and four “sell” ratings among the brokers tracked by Visible Alpha, and an average consensus price target just shy of $300.

Tesla shares closed about 1% higher on Monday at around $317. The stock has lost more than a fifth of its value since the start of the year.

The UBS analysts said they expect Tesla’s second-quarter earnings to be in line with estimates after deliveries fell short. They said that while they have their concerns, they recognize that Tesla is “perhaps the ultimate story-narrative-momentum-meme stock.”

They said next week’s conference call will likely be minimally focused on demand for Tesla’s cars, with CEO Elon Musk more likely to focus on last month’s robotaxi launch and progress for its Optimus robot. For Tesla’s auto business, analysts expect updates on the more affordable Tesla model, which was originally scheduled to launch  in the first half of the year, along with the company’s thoughts on the disappearance of EV tax credits and how this could impact Tesla’s margins.

–Aaron McDade

Kenvue CEO Departs Amid Strategic Review

2 hr 2 min ago

The CEO of Tylenol maker Kenvue (KVUE) has left the company as part of an internal review of the company’s operations. 

The company, which also owns brands including Band-Aid, Johnson’s, Aveeno, Neutrogena, and Listerine, said Thibaut Mongon has stepped down as the company’s chief executive and departed its board of directors. He has been succeeded in an interim capacity by Kirk Perry, a member of the board of directors.

Shares of Kenvue finished Monday’s session up 2.2%.

As part of the ongoing strategic review, Kenvue previously replaced its chief financial officer in May. The company, spun off from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) in 2023, is also considering streamlining its brand portfolio, Chairman Larry Merlo said. 

Meanwhile, Kenvue issued preliminary financial results for the second quarter ended June 29. The company expects to report adjusted earnings per share of 28 cents to 29 cents, which matches the consensus expectation of analysts tracked by Visible Alpha.

–Andrew Kessel

Waters Buys Becton Dickinson Unit for $17.5 Billion

2 hr 47 min ago

Waters (WAT) shares tumbled Monday after the analytics instruments maker said it plans to buy Becton Dickinson’s (BDX) Biosciences & Diagnostic Solutions business in a Reverse Morris Trust transaction valued at $17.5 billion.

Waters said the agreement will double its total addressable market for liquid chromatography, mass spectrometry, flow cytometry, and diagnostic solutions, as well as boost its recurring revenue, and provide other benefits.

Chair Dr. Flemming Ornskov said as the board considered the merger, “it became evident that combining with BD’s Biosciences & Diagnostic Solutions business is an excellent strategic fit with complementary strengths.” He added that Waters believes the deal will “accelerate our strategy in multiple high growth markets and deliver substantial near- and long-term value to our shareholders.”

Under the terms of what is expected to be a tax-free transaction, Becton Dickinson’s division will be spun off to its shareholders while simultaneously merged with a wholly-owned subsidiary of Waters. Waters investors will hold 60.8% of the combined firm, with Becton Dickinson shareholders the other 39.2%. It’s anticipated to be completed in the first quarter of next year.

Shares of Waters were down 12% in recent trading, while Becton Dickinson rose fractionally.

–Bill McColl

What to Expect From Tuesday’s Inflation Report

3 hr 58 min ago

So far, the impact of President Donald Trump’s campaign of steep tariffs against U.S. trading partners has been difficult to spot in hard economic data, but that may be about to change.

A report on the Consumer Price Index is expected to show a notable uptick in inflation, according to a survey of economists by a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The consensus forecast calls for the CPI to have risen 2.7% over the year in June, up from a 2.4% increase in May. “Core” CPI, which excludes the volatile prices for food and energy, is forecast to have risen 3% over the year, up from 2.8% in May.

An uptick in line with expectations could give ammunition to experts who have predicted Trump’s heavy import taxes would show up in price tags sooner or later, as manufacturers, importers, and retailers pass the cost of the duties down the supply chain. Trump has imposed numerous tariffs since taking office, including a 10% tariff on most imported products, a 25% tariff on foreign cars, and tariffs over 50% against Chinese products.

“The tariff boost to consumer prices will be undeniable in June’s data,” economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics, led by Samuel Tombs, wrote in a commentary.

To be sure, economists are not united in that expectation.

“Certain tariff-sensitive components likely rose in June, but the overall impact from tariffs remained limited,” analysts at Nomura led by Aichi Amemiya wrote in a commentary. “We maintain our medium-term outlook that tariffs will likely exert more inflationary pressures later this year, but the timing of an inflation acceleration remains uncertain.”

The report could have implications for the Federal Reserve, which meets at the end of the month to set interest rates. Fed officials have kept their influential interest rate higher than usual to quash inflation, and have refrained from cutting it despite several months of relatively mild inflation reports, out of concern that a hit from tariffs is coming.

“We expect the June CPI report to show inflation beginning to strengthen again, albeit not enough to alarm Fed officials at this juncture,” Sarah House and Nicole Cervi, economists at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in a commentary.

–Diccon Hyatt

Autodesk Jumps on Report Company Backs Off PTC Bid

4 hr 34 min ago

Autodesk (ADSK) shares surged Monday following a report the company is no longer looking to purchase rival design software maker PTC (PTC).

The stock was up close to 6% in recent trading, while PTC shares fell 2%.

Bloomberg reported that it was likely Autodesk backed down because of the price, financial constraints, and opposition from activist investor Starboard Value, which it noted took a stake in the company earlier this year and pushed for changes.

Autodesk wrote in a regulatory filing that it would remain focused on its strategy, including “targeted and tuck-in acquisitions.” It did not directly mention PTC.

Last Thursday, Autodesk shares slumped and PTC shares jumped on a report Autodesk was talking with advisers to evaluate a possible cash-and-stock purchase of PTC.

Autodesk shares were the top gainers in the S&P 500 this afternoon.

–Bill McColl

Crypto Asset Manager Grayscale Files for IPO

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Grayscale, a cryptocurrency asset manager, said Monday it filed confidentially with the Securities and Exchange Commission to go public in the U.S.

The company operates a number of crypto exchange traded funds, including a spot Bitcoin ETF that provides investors exposure to bitcoin’s price movement without owning any of the coin itself. Grayscale offers more than 35 investment products and manages over $33 billion in assets, according to its website. 

Grayscale’s filing comes after the hugely successful listing last month from stablecoin issuer Circle internet Group (CRCL), shares of which have soared more than sixfold from their $31 initial public offering price. Gemini, a crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, and Bullish, an exchange backed by Peter Thiel, have also recently filed to go public.

–Andrew Kessel

Why Bitcoin Keeps Hitting Record Highs

6 hr 18 min ago

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) smashed another record, rising above $123,000 Monday before giving up some of those gains.

What’s powering the world’s largest cryptocurrency to new highs? Institutional buying from bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as well as optimism around “Crypto Week.”

After taking a week off from its usual Monday purchase announcements, Strategy (MSTR) revealed that it bought 4,225 more bitcoin over the week ending July 13 for $472.5 million. This takes it total bitcoin holdings to 601,550. These most recent purchases were made with funds raised through the company’s at-the-market offering programs.

Spot bitcoin ETFs were also extremely active late last week as investors poured money into them. These products hold bitcoin as the underlying asset, and need to purchase more of it as more investors buy the ETF, in turn pushing bitcoin prices higher. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1 billion worth of net inflows on Thursday and Friday, according to data from Farside Investors. Total inflows for last week stood at roughly $2.7 billion, with Blackrock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) garbbing most of that money.

Another likely driver for rising bitcoin prices is the optimism around regulatory clarity that could result from what lawmakers dubbed as “Crypto Week.” The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on three crypto-related bills— the CLARITY Act, Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act, and GENIUS Act. The CLARITY Act is intended to provide clearer guidelines for the regulatory classification of various digital assets, while the GENIUS Act provides a regulatory framework specifically for stablecoins.

“The big impact of ‘Crypto Week’ legislation will be reduced risk and downside volatility in the crypto market,” Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan posted on X. “FTX, Luna, Celsius, and other scandals happened in large part because we refused to provide reasonable regulations. IMO 70%+ drawdowns are a thing of the past.”

–Kyle Torpey

Boeing Inches Higher After Air India Crash Report

7 hr 34 min ago

Boeing (BA) shares are slightly higher to start the week after a preliminary report was released over the weekend regarding the cause of last month’s Air India crash that killed more than 250 people on board and on the ground.

The good news for Boeing and GE Aerospace (GE), which made the engines on the Boeing 787 that crashed, is that the preliminary report from an Indian safety regulatory did not recommend actions to fix any safety issues for operators or manufacturers of the Boeing plane and GE engines.

The report found that the likely cause of the crash was the two fuel cutoff switches being moved from the “run” position to the “cutoff” position, halting the flow of fuel to the aircraft’s engines. It remains unclear how or why the switches were moved, as one pilot was heard asking the other why the switches were turned off, to which the other pilot responded that he did not move the switches, the report said.

Both switches were moved back to the correct position, putting fuel back into the engines, but the report said the change was made too late for the plane to regain altitude before it made contact with trees and buildings on the ground.

The time from when the plane reached its highest speed and the switches were flipped to when the cockpit recording stopped at the time of the crash was about 30 seconds, per the report.

Also over the weekend, the Federal Aviation Administration and Boeing told airlines that there were no safety issues with the way the fuel switch locks are currently designed, according to Reuters and the BBC. In December 2018, the FAA recommended but did not mandate that airlines inspect the switches to ensure that they could not be moved accidentally.

Boeing and GE Aerospace shares were up 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively, in recent trading.

–Aaron McDade

Netflix Levels to Watch as Earnings Set for Thursday

8 hr 28 min ago

Netflix (NFLX) shares are in focus this week as the streaming giant gets set to post its quarterly results after markets close on Thursday.

Given the company no longer reports its subscriber numbers, investors will be monitoring if recent subscription price increases and expanding advertising sales have continued to boost revenue growth. Investors will also keep a close eye on the streamer’s full-year outlook, watching for signs that consumers could be pulling back on nonessential spending amid economic uncertainty.

Coming into this week, Netflix shares had risen 40% since the start of the year and nearly doubled over the past 12 months, boosted in part by the company growing its advertising revenue and expanding its footprint into live event content. The stock was up about 1% at $1,260 in early trading Monday.

After running into selling pressure near the top trendline of an ascending channel, Netflix shares have continued to move lower, breaking down below the pattern’s lower trendline late last week.

While trading volume remains average, the stock’s recent move has coincided with the relative strength index slipping below its neutral threshold, signaling weakening price momentum.

Investors should watch key lower levels on the Netflix chart around $1,200, $1,110 and $1,065, while also monitoring an important overhead area near $1,340.

Read the full technical analysis piece here.

–Timothy Smith

Fastenal Shares Rise on Strong Results

9 hr 45 min ago

Industrial supplier Fastenal (FAST) posted a solid earnings report early Monday, opening a busy week of earnings set to be dominated by big banks and tech giants like Netflix (NFLX),

Fastenal, maker of a variety of fasteners and tools, reported second-quarter revenue of $2.08 billion, along with earnings per share of $0.29, narrowly topping estimates of $2.07 billion and $0.28 per share respectively, per Visible Alpha. Sales and profits rose from the same time a year ago.

Fastenal credited its increasing sales to “improved customer contract signings over the last six quarters,” as it added that “market conditions remained sluggish providing minimal contribution.”

Shares of Fastenal, which recently underwent a two-for-one stock split and set a record high last week, were up 4% in recent premarket trading. They entered the day up 20% since the start of this year.

–Aaron McDade

Major Index Futures Slightly Lower

10 hr 23 min ago

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 0.2% recently.

S&P 500 futures slipped 0.3%.

Nasdaq 100 futures were also off 0.3%.