What is going to happen at today’s no-confidence motion in Tasmanian parliament?

Tasmanians could be forgiven for having a sense of déjà vu today.

Just over 10 weeks ago, Lower House MPs were asked to vote on a motion of no confidence in Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff.

The Labor motion passed by the slimmest of margins, triggering a snap election — the fourth in seven years.

Today, when Tasmania’s 52nd parliament officially opens, MPs will once again be asked to vote on a motion to decide which party has the confidence of the house to govern the state.

Spoiler alert — we already know Labor doesn’t have the numbers to succeed.

But it could still be a day of high political drama in Tasmania.

Here’s how things are expected to unfold.

First up, the formalities

Prior to parliamentary proceedings kicking off, an inter-denominational church service was held at St David’s Cathedral in Hobart at 9:15am.

That was followed by a Tasmanian Aboriginal cultural reflection in the Legislative Council chamber. It’s a private session for MPs.

Members of the House of Assembly were then summoned into the Legislative Council chamber, combining both houses of MPs and MLCs into the same chamber for the official opening of the new parliament at 11am.

Next, we need a Speaker

Members of the House of Assembly then returned to their chamber to elect a new speaker.

Liberal MP Jacquie Petrusma was elected speaker of the lower house in a 25-10 vote, defeating Labor’s Jen Butler.

While the ballot is secret, if it is assumed that all Labor MPs voted for the Labor candidate, it would mean all Liberals and the entire 11-member crossbench voted for Ms Petrusma.

The vote was the first test of how the new parliament might function.

The house was then temporarily adjourned to allow the new speaker to be presented to the governor.

Now, it’s time to test confidence

The main action of the day is likely to happen in the afternoon, once the speaker returns from Government House, at 2pm.

That’s when confidence is expected to be tested on the floor of parliament.

The specific wording of the motion isn’t yet known.

But unlike Labor’s no-confidence motion in June, which only applied to the premier, this one is likely to ask MPs if they also have confidence in Labor.

The broader motion is designed to avoid another early election.

But don’t expect a quick vote, even if we already know the final result.

In the June motion, debate began at about 10am and continued until the House adjourned at 7:30pm.

It then resumed at 10am the following day, and wasn’t resolved until shortly before 4pm.

Based on that precedent, it’s possible MPs won’t cast their votes on the latest motion until either late Tuesday, or potentially sometime on Wednesday.

Speaking this morning, Mr Rockliff said: “The political games must end today”.

“I’m going to embrace the goodwill across the parliament and embrace the will of the people who elected a minority parliament to work together in the best interests of the Tasmanian people,” he said.

“Tasmanians are sick and tired of the political games. It ends today. And we’re rearing to go, to get on with the job.”

What have the major parties offered to the crossbenchers?

Politics is a numbers game, and in a hung parliament like this, the critical number is 18.

That’s the minimum number of votes needed to pass a motion.

The Liberals only have 14 seats, meaning they need the support of four additional crossbenchers.

Ever since the election, they’ve been trying to woo the largely progressive crossbench with a series of policy concessions, including:

Labor, with only 10 seats, needs eight crossbenchers on its side, including the five Greens.

Its main pitches to crossbenchers have included:

• A plan to appoint independent upper house member Ruth Forrest as treasurer to repair the state’s budget
• Fixed, four-year parliamentary terms and improved integrity and parliamentary processes as part of a broader “framework for collaboration”

Who will win the vote?

Until Monday, the outcome of the motion hung in the balance.

But when the Greens confirmed Labor had not offered enough to secure their support, the result became clear.

Without the Greens, Labor simply won’t have the numbers, even if it were to win over the other six crossbenchers, which won’t happen.

Independent MP Kristie Johnston on Monday confirmed she too would not support Labor.

Former Labor-turned-independent David O’Byrne went further on Sunday, saying he would provide confidence and supply to Mr Rockliff, as he did in the previous parliament, citing the need for stability.

Independent MP Craig Garland earlier this month said he had no confidence in Mr Rockliff, pointing to the government’s handling of the budget, the proposed stadium and Marinus Link.

However, on Sunday, Mr Garland welcomed the Liberals’ salmon farming decision and called on Labor to do the same.

This morning, Mr Garland said he was “not sure” how he was going to vote today but that Labor could have done better.

“It’s pretty easy to sit on the sidelines and pick faults, but I think they could have done a little bit better,” he said.

“Let’s face it, if there is ever going to be an alternative government, it’s up to Labor and the Greens to work their differences out.

“Hopefully going forward from here they’ll realise that and we’ll see a different result somewhere down the track maybe.”

Fellow independent Peter George also cautiously welcomed the Liberals’ salmon farming announcement, and expressed support for the phase out of greyhound racing.

On Tuesday morning, Mr George said he would not support the no-confidence motion, but clarified that “won’t mean that I have confidence in the Rockliff government”.

He said the Labor party had shown “no ability to actually talk about compromise” or collaboration on issues important to his electorate and the crossbench.

Another independent, George Razay, has also not revealed his hand.

Carlo di Falco from the SFF has been highly critical of the Liberals’ greyhound racing phase out but hasn’t explicitly said if he’ll support a no-confidence motion against the party and in favour of Labor.

Given the motion is set to fail, the Liberal minority government will remain in power.

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