Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq soar on hopes Trump might dial again subsequent tariff wave

It is the ultimate week of the primary quarter and, as is typical, analysts have spent the previous 12 weeks revising decrease their earnings progress projections for the quarter.

For the S&P 500 (^GSPC), estimates for earnings progress have been lower by 4.4%, greater than the five-year common of three.3% and the 10-year common of three.2%. The biggest revisions have are available tariff-sensitive sectors like Client Discretionary (XLY) and Supplies (XLB).

“Q1 earnings expectations have come down so much, which units up an vital market turning level as soon as corporations begin to launch outcomes,” DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a analysis observe Monday morning. “The bar is low sufficient, particularly in tariff-sensitive teams, that corporations ought to be capable of beat expectations by an above-average quantity.”

As Colas factors out, given latest downgrades to the general macro outlook this yr, the looming query for traders is how a lot bleaker corporations see their paths for the rest of 2025.

“Our view is that corporations will doubtless cut back their Q2 steering, however not but dampen expectations for the yr as an entire,” Colas wrote. “That ought to assist put a ground beneath inventory costs throughout the upcoming Q1 earnings season.”