How backchannels and US mediators pulled rivals again from the brink

In a dramatic flip of occasions, US President Donald Trump took to social media on Saturday to announce that India and Pakistan – after 4 tense days of cross-border clashes – had agreed to a “full and fast ceasefire”.

Behind the scenes, US mediators, alongside diplomatic backchannels and regional gamers, proved essential in pulling the nuclear-armed rivals again from the brink, specialists say.

Nevertheless, hours after a ceasefire deal, India and Pakistan have been buying and selling accusations of contemporary violations – underscoring its fragility.

India accused Pakistan of “repeated violations” whereas Pakistan insisted it remained dedicated to the ceasefire, with its forces displaying “duty and restraint.”

Earlier than Trump’s ceasefire announcement, India and Pakistan have been spiralling in the direction of what many feared might change into a full-blown battle.

After a lethal militant assault killed 26 vacationers in Indian-administered Kashmir final month, India launched air strikes inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir – triggering days of aerial clashes, artillery duels and, by Saturday morning, accusations from either side of missile strikes on one another’s airbases.

The rhetoric escalated sharply, with every nation claiming to have inflicted heavy injury whereas foiling the opposite’s assaults.

Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow on the Brookings Establishment in Washington DC, says US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s name to Pakistani Military Chief Asim Munir on 9 Might “might need been the essential level”.

“There’s nonetheless a lot we do not know concerning the roles of assorted worldwide actors, but it surely’s clear over the previous three days that no less than three nations have been working to de-escalate – the US, after all, but in addition the UK and Saudi Arabia,” she says.

Pakistan’s International Minister Ishaq Dar advised Pakistani media that “three dozen nations” have been concerned within the diplomacy – together with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the US.

“One query is whether or not, if this name had come earlier – proper after the preliminary Indian strikes, when Pakistan was already claiming some Indian losses and an off-ramp was obtainable – it might need prevented additional escalation,” Ms Madan says.

This is not the primary time US mediation has helped defuse an India–Pakistan disaster.

In his memoir, former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo claimed he was woken as much as converse with an unnamed “Indian counterpart”, who feared Pakistan was making ready nuclear weapons in the course of the 2019 standoff.

Former Indian Excessive Commissioner to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria later wrote that Pompeo overstated each the chance of nuclear escalation and the US function in calming the battle.

However diplomats say there’s little doubt the US performed an essential function in defusing the disaster this time.

“The US was probably the most distinguished exterior participant. Final time, Pompeo claimed they averted nuclear battle. Whereas they will doubtless exaggerate, they might have performed the first diplomatic function, maybe amplifying Delhi’s positions in Islamabad,” Mr Bisaria advised the BBC on Saturday.

But on the outset, the US appeared strikingly standoffish.

As tensions flared, US Vice President JD Vance mentioned on Thursday that the US was not going to become involved in a battle that is “essentially none of our enterprise”.

“We won’t management these nations although. Essentially, India has its gripes with Pakistan… America cannot inform the Indians to put down their arms. We won’t inform the Pakistanis to put down their arms. And so we will proceed to pursue this factor by way of diplomatic channels, ” he mentioned in a tv interview.

In the meantime, President Trump mentioned earlier this week: “I do know each [leaders of India and Pakistan] very properly, and I wish to see them work it out… I wish to see them cease, and hopefully they’ll cease now”.

Ejaz Haider, a Lahore-based defence analyst, advised the BBC this seemed to be the one distinction from earlier events.

“The American function was a continuation of previous patterns, however with one key distinction – this time, they initially stayed hands-off, watching the disaster unfold as a substitute of leaping in straight away. Solely once they noticed the way it was enjoying out did they step in to handle it,” Mr Haider advised the BBC.

Consultants in Pakistan say because the escalation cycle deepened, Pakistan despatched “twin alerts”, retaliating militarily whereas asserting a Nationwide Command Authority (NCA) assembly – a transparent reminder of the nuclear overhang.

The NCA controls and takes operational selections concerning Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

This was across the time US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stepped in.

“The US was indispensable. This consequence wouldn’t have occurred with out Secretary Rubio’s efforts,” Ashley J Tellis, a senior fellow on the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace, advised the BBC.

What additionally helped was Washington’s deepening ties with Delhi.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s private rapport with Trump, plus the US’s broader strategic and financial stakes, gave the US administration diplomatic leverage to push each nuclear-armed rivals in the direction of de-escalation.

Indian diplomats see three key peace tracks that occurred this time, very similar to after Pulwama–Balakot in 2019:

• US and UK strain
• Saudi mediation, with the Saudi junior overseas minister visiting each capitals
• The direct India-Pakistan channel between the 2 nationwide safety advisors (NSAs)

Regardless of shifting world priorities and a hands-off posture at first, the US finally stepped in because the indispensable mediator between South Asia’s nuclear rivals.

Whether or not overstated by its personal officers or underacknowledged by Delhi and Islamabad, specialists consider the US’s function as disaster supervisor stays as important – and as difficult – as ever.

Doubts do, nonetheless, linger over the ceasefire’s sturdiness after Saturday’s occasions, with some Indian media reporting it was basically brokered by senior army officers of the 2 nations – not the US.

“This ceasefire is certain to be a fragile one. It happened in a short time, amid sky-high tensions. India seems to have interpreted it in a different way than did the US and Pakistan,” Michael Kugelman, a overseas coverage analyst, advised the BBC.

“Additionally, because it was put collectively so rapidly, the accord could lack the right ensures and assurances one would wish at such a tense second.”