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Hurricane tracker, spaghetti models, Florida impact?

Hurricane tracker, spaghetti models, Florida impact?

Tropical Storm Erin is expected to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season.
See latest spaghetti models on Tropical Storm Erin.
Officials encourage Florida residents to monitor the storm and be prepared.

Tropical Storm Erin continues to move quickly west, and is expected to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Strengthening is expected to begin soon, with forecasters predicting Erin will become a hurricane Thursday, Aug. 14, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters are predicting Erin will become a major hurricane Sunday, Aug. 17. A major hurricane is one that’s a Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

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Even as a tropical rainstorm, Erin dumped 7 to 8 inches of rain on the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, killing at least six people, according to AccuWeather.

The National Hurricane Center said it is still too early to determine “what impacts, if any, Erin will bring” to Florida or the east coast of the United States. Officials are encouraging residents to monitor the storm closely and to make sure they’re prepared.

Where is Tropical Storm Erin and where is it going?

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Tropical Storm Erin spaghetti models

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

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➤ How often has Florida been impacted, threatened by August hurricanes? We took a look back

Track all active Atlantic storms and disturbances

What should you do now to prepare for hurricane season?

Officials regularly encourage Florida residents to prepare for storms before a hurricane is approaching while shelves are full stocked and you aren’t battling crowds all rushing to the store at the same time.

“It only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community,” the National Hurricane Center Miami posted on X. “Hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint.”

On Aug. 1, specific hurricane supplies became permanently tax free in Florida, ranging from batteries to generators.

➤ See list of emergency supplies you can now buy tax free

Florida weather radar for Aug. 12, 2025

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.