Israel-Iran live: ‘Incredible success’ of US strikes on Iran hailed by Hegseth; Starmer warns conflict could escalate beyond region | World News

By Deborah Haynes, security and defence editor

Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran could trigger a wider regional or even global war, but much will hinge on how Russia and China – Tehran’s most powerful allies – respond.

Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, said he will hold “serious consultations” with Vladimir Putin on Monday morning in Moscow.

His country is also in contact with Beijing.

Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are regarded by Western allies as a new axis of authoritarian powers, increasingly aligned and supportive of each other.

President Trump, though, has broken ranks from his country’s traditional democratic partners to forge a closer relationship with Putin than any other US leader in recent years.

How much that might affect the Kremlin’s calculations as Moscow weighs up how to respond to his actions in Iran adds a new layer of unpredictability to the crisis.

Another limiting factor is the Russian military’s physical capacity – should it wish to do so – to bolster Iran with military support, given its war in Ukraine.

What will Russia do next?

Unlike the NATO alliance, there is no formal agreement between Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang to come to each other’s assistance in a crisis.

However, the weakening of one member of the quartet would impact on the vital national interests of the other three, making it mutually beneficial to help each other out – including with military force or at the very least by supplying weapons.

The Russian foreign ministry on Sunday strongly condemned the American strikes against Iranian nuclear sites as a “dangerous escalation” that could further undermine “regional and global security”.

“The risk of an escalation of conflict in the Middle East, already beset by multiple crise,s has increased significantly,” it said in a statement

Last week, the Russian government warned the US against joining Israel’s war in Iran, saying this “would be an extremely dangerous step with truly unpredictable negative consequences”.

The remarks came after Putin held a call with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

It means the Russian government, in particular – given Tehran’s military support to Moscow in the Russian invasion of Ukraine – faces an urgent decision about how to support Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, whose very existence is under threat from Israel.

Iran’s options for hitting back at US

The Iranian regime has little choice but to retaliate directly against the United States after three of its main nuclear facilities were struck overnight.

But its ability to launch ballistic missiles and drones has been severely degraded by waves of Israeli strikes since Benjamin Netanyahu went to war with Iran a week and a half ago.

US bases, warships and aircraft across the region are well within range of Iranian missiles and drones but the Pentagon has significantly strengthened its air defences in anticipation of an Iranian counterattack.

There are plenty of softer targets, though, such as American embassies or other diplomatic missions.

Iran could also choose to mine the Strait of Hormuz – a move that would have global ramifications by disrupting the flow of large amounts of oil and gas, as well as other trade.

Potential risk to US allies

In addition, the military assets of American allies could be viewed as legitimate targets.

The UK has said it played no part in the US attack.

But Britain’s Ministry of Defence has further increased “force protection” measures for its military bases and personnel in the Middle East to their highest level in the wake of the US strikes, it is understood.