Guesses about who would be the subsequent Roman Catholic pope usually show inaccurate. Earlier than the collection of Pope Francis in 2013, many bookmakers had not even counted him among the many front-runners.
This time, predictions are additional difficult as a result of Francis made many appointments in a comparatively brief period of time throughout his tenure, diversifying the School of Cardinals and making it more durable to establish actions and factions throughout the group.
Nonetheless, dialogue of potential names started way back behind the Vatican’s partitions, and observers are predicting a number of potentialities.
Some are seen as prone to construct on Francis’ progressive agenda, whereas others would characterize a return to a extra conventional type. Specialists additionally counsel that the School may favor a prelate with expertise within the complexities of worldwide relations.
Listed below are a number of the contenders.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, an Italian who’s the Vatican’s high official for Center East affairs, is taken into account a attainable front-runner. Though he turned a cardinal solely in 2023, his expertise in one of many world’s most heated battle zones helped him rise to prominence.
Cardinal Pizzaballa can be the primary Italian pope since John Paul I in 1978, however consultants say he’s additionally thought of a world determine and faraway from Vatican politics, having spent a lot of his profession in Jerusalem.
He has additionally usually steered away from polemics about doctrine, which consultants say might assist him safe the required two-thirds majority within the School of Cardinals, though some assume he could also be thought of too younger for the function.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, has been Pope Francis’ second-in-command since 2013, when Francis made him secretary of state. In that function, the cardinal is in control of overseeing inner church affairs and guiding overseas coverage.
A soft-spoken Italian and mild-mannered centrist, Cardinal Parolin is deeply acquainted with the Curia, the church’s central administration, in addition to of the Vatican’s huge worldwide community, having served for over 20 years as a diplomat and below secretary on the Vatican-based physique that oversees its worldwide relations.
Fluent in English, French, Italian and Spanish, he has spoken at worldwide conferences on the Israeli-Palestinian battle, local weather change and human trafficking.
He’s additionally an knowledgeable on Asia, and Vatican watchers take into account him the mastermind of the progress the Vatican has made in recent times on constructing relations with China and Vietnam.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, 65, the archbishop of Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo, has been thought of a attainable contender since Francis made him a cardinal in 2019.
Pope Francis had lengthy urged the Catholic Church to “go to the peripheries,” that means communities in Africa and Asia, the place the church is also essentially the most vibrant. One persistent query has been when the church may reinforce that dedication by selecting a pope from Africa. Catholics make up about 18 % of the inhabitants of the continent and generate extra seminarians than another a part of the world.
Pope Francis, an Argentine, was the primary non-European to steer the church since 741. Even so, Francis was from a household with Italian roots.
But there’s a sure paradox concerned in selecting any successor from Africa. Whereas it could be a break from custom, the Catholic hierarchy in Africa is among the many most conservative.
Cardinal Ambongo has been near Pope Francis, considered one of simply 9 members of an advisory group referred to as the Council of Cardinals. However the cardinal led the opposition to Francis’ 2023 ruling that the church ought to bless gay {couples}.
Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, a liberal-leaning cardinal from the Philippines whom commentators have dubbed the “Asian Francis,” has for years been deemed a front-runner to be pope.
He was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2012 and can be the primary Asian pope.
An ally of Francis, the customarily smiling Cardinal Tagle goes by the nickname “Chito.” His extremely personable method is according to Francis’ consideration to the poor and people in want in growing international locations, the place he has lived and labored.
He accompanied Francis or helped put together for his journeys to Asia, together with a grueling 11-day tour of Southeast Asia and the Pacific in the summertime of 2024.
He additionally comes from a area of the world the place Catholicism nonetheless performs a distinguished function, and the place Francis paid specific consideration in making an attempt to construct a church with a much less Eurocentric future.
Cardinal Tagle was broadly thought of probably the most promising candidates within the 2013 conclave however appeared too younger for the job on the time.
Cardinal Tagle has handled a number of the church’s most divisive points, just like the inclusion of homosexual individuals and whether or not to offer communion to divorced and remarried Catholics.
He served as president of the church’s worldwide gathering on the household in 2014, and of a common meeting on the identical subject the next yr, during which prelates agreed on a extra inclusive method by the church, though they remained against same-sex marriage.
Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi of Italy, 69, stands out among the many contenders who mirror Francis’ view that the church needs to be consultant of and help the poor.
Francis promoted the progressive native of Bologna to the rank of cardinal in 2019 and assigned him a number of vital missions. Some consultants speculate that Francis would have doubtless favored him as his successor, though the pope by no means weighed in publicly on the matter.
Cardinal Zuppi is intently tied to Sant’Egidio, a Catholic group recognized for its service to the poor and battle decision.
Vatican watchers say the group turned an more and more vital foyer below Francis, and consultants suspect that the cardinal’s closeness to the highly effective group might assist him get hold of votes. However that hyperlink has additionally raised considerations that, if elected pope, he can be overly influenced by the group.
In 2015, Francis named him archbishop of Bologna, probably the most vital posts in Italy. There, “Don Matteo,” as he’s recognized, continued to work with poor individuals and migrants. “Welcoming migrants is a historic problem for Europe,” he has stated. “Christ invitations us to not flip away.”
And in recent times Francis appointed Cardinal Zuppi to the important thing function of envoy for Ukraine issues.
He has additionally been welcoming to L.G.B.T. Catholics, writing the preface for the Italian version of the Rev. James Martin’s 2017 ebook, “Constructing a Bridge,” which known as for the church to seek out new pastoral methods of ministering to homosexual individuals.
Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary, 72, an knowledgeable on canon legislation, is predicted to be a front-runner amongst cardinals who lengthy for a return to the conservatism of Popes John Paul II and Benedict XVI.
John Paul II named the cleric archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest in 2002, and the next yr gave him a cardinal hat, making him — at 50 — the youngest cardinal on the time.
Cardinal Erdo is taken into account an astute diplomat, capable of construct bridges with Catholics in Latin America and Africa and good at reaching out to different non secular teams. He has regularly attended Holocaust memorials, and Jewish leaders say his help has been essential at a time of the rise of the far proper and rising anti-Semitism in Hungary.
He’s recognized to lots of his Western counterparts, having served from 2006 to 2016 as president of the Council of the Bishops’ Conferences of Europe. He has additionally written a number of books, and speaks or understands English, French, German, Italian, Russian and Spanish, giving him linguistic prowess to serve a worldwide flock.
He has spoken out in opposition to permitting divorced Catholics to obtain communion and in opposition to taking in migrants.
In a 2019 book-length interview with Robert Moynihan, the founder and editor of Contained in the Vatican journal, Cardinal Erdo spoke of a have to “guard the flame” of conventional Christian religion in an more and more secular world.
Bishop Anders Arborelius of Stockholm, 75, who transformed to Catholicism at age 20, is Sweden’s first Catholic cardinal.
Though Sweden was as soon as predominantly Lutheran and is now largely secular, it’s considered one of few European international locations the place the Roman Catholic Church has grown in recent times. Francis’ elevation of the cardinal in 2017 was seen as one other try to succeed in out to international locations the place Catholics characterize a minority.
In a latest interview, Cardinal Arborelius stated the largest challenges going through the Church had been constructing bridges in a polarized world, giving better affect to girls throughout the Church, and serving to households go on the religion.
He additionally warned of political currents probably dividing the Church. “It may be a hazard in some components of the church that you simply get divided on numerous points,” he stated. “We should always not kind events throughout the Catholic Church.”
Cardinal Arborelius, a former Carmelite monk, has — like Francis — expressed help for migrants. However he voiced opposition to blessing same-sex {couples}. In 2006, he stated {that a} determination by the Lutheran Swedish Church to permit such blessings would make dialogue between it and the Roman Catholic Church harder.