Stock market news for July 2, 2025

The S&P 500 rose on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal. However, a new report showing private payrolls surprisingly decreased in June, which raised concerns over the state of the U.S. economy.

The broad market index gained 0.47% and closed at 6,227.42. The S&P 500 scored a fresh all-time intraday high and closed at a record. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.94% and posted a record close of 20,393.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 10.52 points, or 0.02%, and ended at 44,484.42.

The S&P 500 saw a boost after Trump posted on Truth Social about the deal between the U.S. and Vietnam. The deal includes a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam. Shares of Nike, which manufactures approximately half of its footwear in Vietnam as well as China, were 4% higher.

Earlier Wednesday, stocks came under some pressure after the latest report by ADP showed that the private sector lost 33,000 jobs last month. That marks the first monthly decline in ADP’s payrolls report since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected payrolls to grow by 100,000.

“We, frankly, have been seeing a weakening of the labor market for months and months now, and I always wondered if it would take a negative payrolls print to get the [Federal Reserve] to pay a little bit more attention to the labor market as opposed to the inflation picture,” Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird, told CNBC. “This is, on that front, what will hopefully catch some attention.”

To be sure, the ADP report has a lackluster record predicting the government’s monthly nonfarm payrolls report, which is due out Thursday. Economists expect growth of 110,000 jobs for June.

However, if the upcoming jobs data follows the ADP report in missing expectations, a Fed interest rate cut may be on the table when policymakers meet later this month, according to CFRA Research’s Sam Stovall. There’s already been growing expectations for the Fed lowering rates at its July meeting, as the CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows a roughly 23% chance of a cut, up from almost 21% a day before.

“If we end up having a fairly weak employment report, then that could allow the Fed to be cutting rates,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. He also pointed out that Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently confirmed that the central bank would have cut rates by now if it weren’t for Trump’s tariff plans announced earlier this year.

“If that were the case then, it could be the case now, especially if we have weaker-than-expected employment data,” Stovall added.

Traders were also keeping an eye on Trump’s tax-and-spending bill, which narrowly passed the Senate on Tuesday. The measure returns to the House, where there are still hold-outs among GOP lawmakers.