UK net migration almost halves in 2024, falling to 431,000, ONS estimates – follow live

Dominic Casciani
Home and Legal Correspondent

Oxford University’s respected Migration Observatory, which carries out independent and impartial analysis, says that today’s figures shows the net migration rollercoaster has hit the downslope.

And while the 431,000 figure is well above the pre-Brexit peak of roughly 300,000, it still has further to fall as policy levers are pulled.

“This record-breaking decline in net migration was possible primarily because numbers had previously been so high,” says
Dr Madeleine Sumption, the head of the unit.

“UK migration patterns in 2023 were very unusual, with unexpectedly large numbers of visas for care workers, international students, and their family members. This made it easier for the government at that time to bring down the numbers.”

So will the falls damage the economy?

Sumption says the impact is likely to be relatively small.

“The groups that have driven the decline, such as study and work dependants, are neither the highest skilled, highest-paid migrants who make substantial contributions to tax revenues, nor the most disadvantaged groups that require substantial support.”