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By Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent

The newest US-Russia prisoner swap is an additional signal of the thawing relations between Moscow and Washington, however I feel it is also a sign of how gradual issues are shifting.

Rewind two months to 11 February. You may bear in mind there was one other prisoner swap.

Out of the blue, 63-year-old American schoolteacher Marc Fogel, who had been imprisoned in Russia on drug smuggling expenses, was abruptly launched and on his approach residence to the US.

It was a part of a deal that had been secured following a secret journey to Moscow by US envoy Steve Witkoff, and it marked the primary signal of motion in the direction of a peace deal in Ukraine.

On the time, Donald Trump stated it “might be a giant vital half” of ending the battle. The president stated it was a present of excellent religion from the Russians.

It additionally marked the primary signal of rapprochement between the White Home and the Kremlin. 

Since then, there have been numerous face-to-face conferences between the 2 sides, at numerous ranges. 

There have been (at the least two) telephone calls between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. 

We have had discuss of sanctions reduction, enterprise offers and the resumption of direct flights. 

But it surely’s simply that. Discuss. There’s nonetheless nothing concrete, a lot to Donald Trump’s frustration, it appears.

Fundamental Istanbul talks present lack of progress

The newest spherical of US-Russia talks, in Istanbul right now, is an instance of the shortage of progress.

Washington stated the assembly could be solely centered on “embassy operations”. 

Which means points like paying salaries (which has develop into tougher below sanctions), diplomatic journey restrictions and the employment of exterior contractors like cleaners and gardeners (which Moscow presently forbids for the US mission right here).

So for now, it is nonetheless actually fundamental stuff. 

Because the US State Division stated yesterday, Ukraine is “completely not on the agenda”.

Russia in driving seat and prisoner swap is to maintain US candy

What’s placing is {that a} peace deal seems conditional on the reset of relations, somewhat than the opposite approach round. 

To me, that is an indication that Russia is within the driving seat, and never the US.

At the moment’s prisoner alternate is a part of all this. 

Like February’s swap, I feel it is a present of goodwill, and an try by Moscow to maintain the People candy, after Vladimir Putin was accused of dragging his ft in negotiations.

It actually reveals Donald Trump that the connection is shifting in the best path. 

And, on a private degree, for Ksenia Karelina and her household, it’s a vastly vital second. 

However on the geopolitical degree, these are nonetheless simply crumbs Russia is providing, not the entire cake.